2025

Europe, Trump and the New World Order

Helsinki, 26 - 28 June

This year’s EBLC Northern Light Summit, held under the theme Europe, Trump and the New World Order, tackled the reshaping of global politics at a time of deepening uncertainty and geopolitical tension. Over two and a half days, the discussions examined how Europe is adapting to a changing world, marked by the return of great power rivalry, the rise of AI, and the second iteration of President Donald J. Trump. The question at the center of the summit was not whether the world order is changing, but what kind of order, if any, will replace the old one.

The speakers and participants explored the recalibration of US foreign and trade policy under Trump 2.0 and the changing world order. One participant described the current agenda not as retreat, but as realism — sovereignty first, borders firm, and trade fair. The message: disruption is the strategy, not the side effect. Transatlantic ties were seen as enduring but conditional. Europe remains a partner to the US, but only if it carries its share of the weight.

Trump’s approach to Iran, Ukraine, and trade were seen as both a risk and an opportunity. Several participants agreed that Trump’s unpredictability is a tool of leverage, not a flaw, and that he may be uniquely positioned to broker peace in Ukraine once a ceasefire is established.

Yet others warned that Europe must prepare for greater volatility and reduced American reliability. It was noted that this is a “moment of agency” for Europe, one where leadership, not dependence, must define its future. And any good news? Europe has finally “woken up” and is strengthening its defense and readiness. Even NATO is returning to its origins. But talking is not enough – Europe needs to act.

World economy was furthermore discussed, with focus on the breakdown of old trade patterns, modern mercantilism, and the reorientation of global supply chains. India emerged as a key beneficiary of diversification away from China. Still, one strong prevailing view at this year’s EBLC was that deglobalisation is not inevitable. Rather, the structures of globalisation are being renovated: through new corridors, bilateral deals, and sovereign resilience strategies.

Technology was yet another cornerstone of this year’s conference. It was warned that AI may not lead to broad-base prosperity as optimists often think. AI’s role in European productivity was broadly discussed: it was clear that Europe lags behind the US in innovation and development. Europe has missed the first train: AI development. Luckily, however, another train is coming: adaptation. The biggest challenge? Excessive regulation. Participants called for serious streamlining.

The relationship between media, technology and democracy was also on the table. The speakers agreed that the collapse of traditional media business models, the rise of centralised digital intermediaries, and the weaponisation of information pose fundamental challenges to democracy. There is no business model for privacy, as one speaker noted.

A panel on China concluded that the world is entering a diffuse strategic rivalry rather than a direct clash of empires. China's dominance in rare earths and AI, coupled with the weakness of Western coordination, heightens the risk of conflict or miscalculation, especially over Taiwan or in the Arctic. However, the risk for a conflict over Taiwan was seen as less likely in the short-term than just a few years ago. Why? Time may play into China’s hands. 

The speakers were not overly optimistic of the near future of both Ukraine and Middle East. A panel on the Middle East concluded there is little appetite for transformation in the area, only containment of crises. Iran and Gaza remain flashpoints with no clear endgames. Rather, managing permanent crises has become the norm. And an acceptable peace in Ukraine in the coming 12 months? Not likely, as Russia’s economy remains more robust than expected.

European security was discussed through the concept of Total Defence. Finland’s model of total defense, integrating military defense, public-private cooperation and civil preparedness, offers a template for other European countries to strengthen their resilience. The discussion was complemented by a report explaining the Finnish model of Total Defence prepared for this year’s Northern Light Summit.

The summit concluded with a sobering forecasts from the speakers: the rules-based order is fractured, trust has eroded, and power is up for grabs. Whether Europe can reassert itself as a sovereign force or be swept along by events may be the defining question of the coming years. The world needs a new world order based on trust, rather than seeking uniformity.

Speakers included e.g., President of Finland Alexander Stubb, Simon Johnson (MIT, Nobel Laureate 2024), Kevin Roberts (President, Heritage Foundation), Philip Gordon (Former National Security Adviser to Vice President Kamala Harris),  Christian Klein (CEO, SAP), Meredith Whittaker (President, Signal Foundation), Morten Wierod (President and CEO, ABB), K. Krithivasan (CEO, Tata Consulting Services), Goli Sheikholeslami, (CEO, Politico Media Group).